Nifty Charts

Nifty Vs DOW - YTD

The De coupling theory busted - Nifty Fell almost 60% from its highs Vs Dow's fall of 40% from its highs.


Nifty - YTD chart



A break out above 3080 on closing basis can take nifty up to 3460 levels, if Global Markets support in coming days. Fall below 2820 will confirm down Trend

Emerging Markets in 2009 - What to expect ??

The Year 2008 will go down in history as one of the most difficult years in the history of Financial Markets. It started with the Sub prime bubble that swallowed huge amount of money from the Banks treasury , in turn causing a wide spread credit crunch that triggered the Demise of Lehman bros , Bear sterns & AIG. The Problem that started from the Developed world has been contagious and caused huge problems to the emerging markets as well. The theory of decoupling proved to be wrong. Emerging markets have taken a bigger hit than the developed ones.

Russia and India -- two of the four once-mighty BRIC countries -- are among the five worst-performing major global emerging markets this year. Brazil and China are also deeply in the red, down 56% and 52% respectively.The MSCI Emerging Markets index shed 56%, as investors pulled billions of dollars out of developing economies.


Worst hit by the turmoil was Eastern Europe, where equities have tumbled 68% this year. Several countries, including Hungary and Ukraine, have sought financial aid from the International Monetary Fund.

Some of the worst-performing emerging markets

Russia: Equities in resource-dependent Russia have plummeted as much as 72% this year, as the country was battered by the worst financial crisis since 1998. Falling oil prices and Geo political tensions with Georgia added more concerns on russian markets.

India: Indian equities have fallen 65% this year as last year's rally has unraveled. In 2007, India was one of three best-performing emerging markets, but asset prices had surged to unsustainable levels. GDP is expected to slow down significantly , the recent IIP numbers confirm that possibility.

Outlook for 2009 :

* The scorching pace at which economies like china and India were growing will definitely not be seen in 2009. The ripple effect of the crisis begins to show up on these economies. China would slip to Single digit growth.

* China's export and import have slowed down significantly. China is highly dependent on export oriented growth. In India which in driven by domestic consumption also feels the slow down in demand. Companies are beginning to cut down on production and announce lay off's.

* Brazil and Russia are commodity driven markets, with commodity prices tumbling these markets are at a higher risk.

* The concerns on deflation is begging to show up, US and UK central banks have sounded their concerns over deflationary scenarios. Deflation will lead to a depression, as it happened in the 1930's.

* Oil prices have fallen to a 5 year low of $33 inspite of record production cuts by OPEC. This provides a breather for India where subsidy burden for Oil products is very high.

* Not much of recovery in expected in 2009 in terms of economic growth. As US is expected to fall into a severe recession. Job losses could peak at 9-10% and US GDP could Slip significantly.


We would Like to hear your comments. Pls leave your comments and thoughts.

Worst is yet to come - Says Dr.Doom

Nouriel Roubini the Man who predicted the crisis says worst is yet to come. He predicts global recession and Deflationary scenarios in 2009

MarketS DailY - Dec 18

US Markets

Dow 8824		-99.80	(-1.12%)
Nasdaq 1579		-10.58	(-0.67%)
S&P 904		-8.76	(-0.96%)

Europe

FTSE 100 4324		+15.11	(+0.35%)
CAC 40 3242		-9.74	(-0.30%)
DAX 30 4708		-21.53	(-0.46%)

Asia at 9 30 AM

Nikkei 225 8689		+76.42	(+0.89%)
Hang Seng 15383		-77.92	(-0.50%)

SGX Nifty 2955 -2 pts

Commodities

Light Crude (NYM)

40.06

(-3.54)

Gold (CMX)

868.50

(+25.80)

Market Outlook:

US markets ended in red a day after the FED rate cuts. OPEC meet ended with big production cuts to revamp oil demand. Was a silent day of trade across the world. Nifty slipped from resistance levls around 3100. This range will prove to be big resistance , support lies at 2860 lvls.

News Today

* OPEC announced it would cut production by 2.2 million barrels a day starting next month. The cut is the largest ever announced by OPEC. Oil falls to 4 1/2 year lows after the move.

* Auto maker Chrysler shuts down all production.The Bush administration and G.M. and Chrysler are said to be negotiating terms of an overhaul package.

* Morgan Stanley splashed in red posts a $2.3 billion loss and sketches out changes.

* BOE chairman warns of Global deflation. The biggest problem with deflation is that when businesses need to continually cut prices to spur sales, they eventually respond by cutting production. That results in growing job losses, and could, in the worst case scenario, even cause a depression.

* Satyam bowed to investor pressure and cancelled plans to buy Maytas Properties.

* USD - YEN hits a 13 year low of 87.62, there is a risk of carry trade unwinding.

Worst-performing Emerging markets in 2008
MSCI Russia	-72%
MSCI Turkey	-66%
MSCI Hungary	-65%

* based on the MSCI Emerging Markets indexes in dollar terms, as of Dec. 12

Biggest financial frauds in the world

Madoff - An alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme fraud which is easily the biggest fraud in the history of capital markets.

Jerome Kerviel - Parisian trader of Societe Generale created damages of 7.1 billion dollars with term operations on european stock indicators.

Brian Hunter - Lost of 6.4 billion dollars from operations with derived instruments with natural gases lead to the extinction of Amaranth Advisory investment fund.

Giancarlo Paretti - The italian business man buyed using credits from banks Hollywood studios, merging into fraudulent operations that caused 5 billion dollars lost.

John Meriwether - Derived placements with active supports made by the financial director of Salomon Brothers caused lost of 4.6 billion dollars.
Yashuo Hamanaka - Copper trader of Sumitomo Corporation caused 2.6 billion lost with wrong term transactions placement.

Harshad Mehta - obtained funds from the bank market, which he operated at Bombay Stock Exchange. In 1992 the Indian stock exchange collapsed, the total lost being around 1.3 billion dollars.

Madoff's Ponzi Scheme Clients

Client	Client Type	Exposure
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Access International Advisors	Financial firm	$1.4 billion
Ascot Partners	Financial firm	About $1.8 billion in assets
Banco Santander, Optimal Investment Services	Financial firm	$3.1 billion of client exposure
Bank Medici	Financial firm	$2.1 billion
Banque Bénédict Hentsch	Financial firm	$48 million
BBVA	Financial firm	$404 million
Benbassat	Financial firm	$935 million
BNP Paribas	Financial firm	up to $478 million
Bramdean Alternatives	Financial firm	About 9.5 percent of assets
Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations	Financial Firm	$1.4 million
Carl and Ruth Shapiro Family Foundation	Charitable foundation	$145 million
Chais Family Foundation	Charitable foundation	Unknown
Clal Insurance	Insurer	$778,000
CNP Assurances	Insurer	$4.1 million
Congregation Kehilath Jeshurun	Religious Organization	$3.5 million
Credit Mutuel	Financial firm	$124 million
Dexia	Financial firm	$107 million
EIM Group	Financial firm	$230 million
Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity	Charitable foundation	$37 million
Fairfield Greenwich Group	Financial firm	$7.5 billion
Fix Asset Management	Financial firm	$400 million
Fortis Bank Netherlands	Financial firm	$1.4 billion
Gift of Life Bone Marrow Foundation	Charitable foundation	$1.8 million
Groupama	Insurer	$13.6 million
Harel Insurance	Insurer	$14.2 million
HSBC Holdings	Financial firm	$1 billion
JEHT Foundation	Charitable foundation	Unknown
Jewish Federation of Greater Washington	Charitable foundation	$10 million
Jewish Foundation of Greater Los Angeles	Charitable foundation	$6.4 million
Julian J. Levitt Foundation	Charitable foundation	$6 million
Kingate Management	Financial firm	$3.5 billion
Madoff Family Foundation	Charitable foundation	$19 million
Man Group	Financial firm	$360 million
Maxam Capital Management	Financial firm	$280 million
Mediobanca	Financial firm	$671,000
Mirabaud	Financial firm	Several million dollars
Mortimer B. Zuckerman Charitable Remainder Trust	Charitable foundation	$30 million
Neue Privat Bank	Financial firm	$5 million
Nomura Holdings	Financial firm	$302 million
Norman Braman	Individual	Unknown
North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System	Hospital	$5.7 million
Notz Stucki	Financial firm	Unknown
Pioneer Alternative Investments	Financial firm	About $280 million in assets
Ramaz School	School	$6 million
Reichmuth, the Reichmuth Matterhorn fund	Financial firm	$330 million
Robert I. Lappin Charitable Foundation	Charitable foundation	$7 million
Royal Bank of Scotland	Financial firm	$625 million
SAR Academy	School	About $1.2 million
Senator Frank R. Lautenberg’s charitable foundation	Charitable foundation	Unknown
Société Générale	Financial firm	$13.8 million
Sterling Equities	Financial firm	Unknown
Tremont Group Holdings	Investment firm	$3.3 billion
Union Bancaire Privee	Financial firm	$1.08 billion
Wunderkinder Foundation	Charitable foundation	Unknown
Yeshiva University	University	$100 to $125 million

Source : nytimes.com