Dow Theory is a heterodox theory on stock price movements that is used as the basis for technical analysis. The theory was derived from 255 Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow (1851–1902), journalist, founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company.
Six basic tenets of Dow Theory :
1. The market has three movements
The "main movement", may last from less than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish. (2) The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from 10 days to three months (3) The "short swing" or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a month or more.
2. Market Trends have three phases :
Accumulation (when insiders are buying a into a good deal), public participation (when every Tom, Dick and Harry gets involved), and distribution (when the wise guys sell off their shares for profit)
3. The stock market discounts all news
Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information. On this point, Dow Theory agrees with one of the premises of the efficient market hypothesis.
4. Stock market averages must confirm each other
In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.
5. Trends are confirmed by volume
Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true" market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing.
6. Trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended
Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move. The trend should be given the benefit of the doubt during these reversals. Determining whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is not easy. Dow Theorists often disagree in this determination. Technical analysis tools attempt to clarify this but they can be interpreted differently by different investors.
If the current context of market is seen , as per DOW theory it tells to sell the markets.
The confirmations we see now are
- The DOW Jones transportation index has made lower bottoms.
- The Market is beginning to digest bad news for instance GDP nos of last qtr, Multi decade high Unemployment data.
- The Market is on low Volumes.
IS ANOTHER BIG SELL OF ON CARDS ????????
