MarketPulz

Banks Prepare for Greek Default

2011-09-26T10:41:00.001+05:30

Bankers are bracing for a Greek default, and their best hope is that Europe can erect firewalls around the banking system strong enough and soon enough to prevent it from spreading to other euro-zone countries.

via cnbc

G 20 Pledges to keep markets Stable

2011-09-23T09:01:00.001+05:30

Financial ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 major economies said in a statement late Thursday that the bloc would conduct a "strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy." The comminque added that the G-20 would take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required."

EU officials expect Greece to default

2011-09-22T20:14:00.002+05:30

There is a growing consensus among EU diplomats and officials that Greece will default while remaining inside the eurozone.

Intense talks are taking place in Berlin, Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels about how to manage a Greek default in the short to medium term.

“It is not now but a question of when and how, not if,” said a source.

via telegraph

IMF : Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery Ahead

2011-09-22T12:57:00.001+05:30

The global economic recovery is slowing, with world growth projected at 4 percent in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5 percent in 2010, the IMF said in its latest forecast.

IMF Notes

Global growth forecast to moderate to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012
Advanced economies facing anemic growth of only 1.6 percent in 2011
Multiple shocks combined with insufficient rebalancing stalling recovery

read full report here

George Soros : The Double Dip is Already Here

2011-09-22T09:07:00.003+05:30

FOMC Statement

2011-09-22T09:03:00.004+05:30

The following is the text of the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to swap $400 billion of holdings into longer-term debt:

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

ECRI : Risk of a Double Dip for US quite high

2011-09-20T12:50:00.001+05:30

Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, says all of his economic indicators point to more sputtering ahead.

"The risk of a new recession is quite high," he says.

If we do have a double-dip recession, Achuthan says, the people who are already having trouble finding work and paying bills are already in a depression and that they "are going to suffer more."

Check Achuthan and the ECRI’s impressive recession calls in recent years here

US fund withdrawals top $75 bn, Highest since lehman collapse

2011-09-20T11:27:00.000+05:30

Investors have pulled more money from US equity funds since the end of April than in the five months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings, adding to the $2.1-trillion rout in American stocks.

About $75 billion was withdrawn from funds that focus on shares during the past four months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group, and EPFR Global, a research firm. Outflows totaled $72.8 billion from October 2008 through February 2009, following Lehman's bankruptcy, the data show

via ET

Italy suffers downgrade

2011-09-20T10:22:00.002+05:30

S&P cuts Italy's sovereign credit ratings by one notch to A/A-1, with a negative outlook., citing "weakening economic growth prospects" for the nation, and political gridlock in Rome.

Obama Unveils Deficit Plan

2011-09-19T21:48:00.001+05:30

President Barack Obama called for $1.5 trillion in tax increases over the next decade, largely targeting the wealthy, to help trim the deficit, saying U.S. prosperity depends on paying down the federal debt.

In combination with cuts in spending, Obama said, his plan would reduce the long-term deficit by $3 trillion beyond the $1 trillion that was agreed to as part of a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

Via Bloomberg

Dollar Libor rate Climbs to highest in a year

2011-09-19T21:45:00.000+05:30

The cost to borrow money in dollars remained at the highest level in more than a year on Monday while the rate to borrow euros was little changed. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans traded at 0.35133%, little changed from Friday and up from 0.34289% a week ago. The three-month Libor rate for euros was little changed at 1.48375%, near the highest since early 2009.

China ready to end dollar peg

2010-03-07T13:03:00.001+05:30

telegraph.co.uk : The head of China’s central bank has given the strongest signal yet that the country will move away from pegging its currency to the dollar, but he said any changes would be gradual.

Full read

Thoughts From Buffet

2010-03-03T10:51:00.001+05:30

Chris Wood : The crisis is going to happen first in Europe, the US will be the endgame.

2010-03-02T10:47:00.000+05:30

Warren Buffet's Annual letter to shareholders

2010-03-01T14:02:00.002+05:30

The Greatest Investor of all time finally speaks,in his annual letter to Berkshire share holders... Read the letter here.

No German rescue plan for debt-ridden Greece says Merkel

2010-03-01T13:56:00.000+05:30

Chancellor Angela Merkel Sunday dismissed talk of a German rescue plan for Greece's ailing economy, as Athens braced for an EU audit that could usher in new austerity cuts to tackle its massive debt crisis.

Greek bond prices rallied this week on a report that Europe's top economy was considering coming to the aid of debt-burdened Greece, as Prime Minister George Papandreou prepares to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin on Friday.

But the German chancellor denied any such plan was in the works, saying "there is absolutely no question of it".

More here

California is a greater risk than Greece, warns JP Morgan chief

2010-03-01T13:54:00.002+05:30

Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan Chase, has warned American investors should be more worried about the risk of default of the state of California than of Greece's current debt woes.

Read more

Greek PM " Worst Fears Confirmed on Economy "

2010-02-26T18:55:00.000+05:30

Cnbc : Prime Minister George Papandreou on Friday vowed to ignore the political costs and take drastic measures to pull Greece out of a debt crisis threatening the stability of the euro zone.

Speaking to parliament after a visit by EU economic inspectors, Papandreou said Greece did not want other countries to pay for its debts but expected solidarity from its European peers as it struggled with worse than expected fiscal problems.

More here

Concerns grow over China's sale of US bonds

2010-02-26T11:06:00.002+05:30

Evidence is mounting that Chinese sales of US Treasury bonds over recent months are intended as a warning shot to Washington over escalating political disputes rather than being part of a routine portfolio shift as thought at first.

Read here

George Soros on China

2010-02-25T18:22:00.000+05:30

A hard landing for Chinese markets could come, Soros said, due to a significant increase in supply offset by falling demand. China's regulatory authorities have managed the situation well thus far, he said, but he's concerned about how various countries are maneuvering in the face of global imbalances.

Looking back at the past year's responses to the global financial crisis, Soros says lending by Chinese government-owned banks was indeed excessive, but that regulatory decisions to adjust reserve ratio requirements were appropriate.

Full article

Ben Bernanke's testimony to the US Congress

2010-02-25T12:48:00.001+05:30

Read here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100224a.htm

The world economy has no easy way out of the mire

2010-02-25T12:35:00.000+05:30

By Martin Wolf , Ft.com : Anybody who looks carefully at the world economy will recognise that a degree of monetary and fiscal stimulus unprecedented in peacetime is all that is prodding it along, not only in high-income countries, but also in big emerging ones. The conventional wisdom is that it will also be possible to manage a smooth exit. Nothing seems less likely. So let us consider the endgame, instead.

Fed chief Bernanke: U.S. economic recovery not yet self-sustaining

2010-02-24T20:46:00.000+05:30

(MarketWatch) : Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday that the economic recovery is not yet on a sustainable path, and that near-zero interest rates are still needed. Strong growth in the latter half of 2009 was fueled by temporary factors, Bernanke told members of the House Financial Services Committee. "A sustained recovery will depend on continued growth in private sector final demand," Bernanke said. There are some positive signs on the outlook, but the job market remains "quite weak," said the Fed chairman. The Federal Funds rate is likely to remain low for an "extended period," he said

US New Home Sales Tumble to Record Lows

2010-02-24T20:41:00.000+05:30

cnbc : Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell to a record low in January, according to government data on Wednesday that hinted at potential trouble for the fragile housing market recovery.

More here

Jim Rogers : UK will lose AAA credit rating, not buying Indian Equity

2010-02-24T20:29:00.000+05:30

Do you think that the UK is going to lose its AAA credit rating this year?

Of course. How can they maintain the credit rating other than fixing the books, or something. The UK has staggering amounts of debt that it has taken on in the past few years.

What is your view on Indian equities? Do you still like Sri Lanka and China better?

I am not buying either China or Sri Lanka at the moment. I am not buying equities anywhere at the moment because there had been such big run ups and cheers all over the world that I am just sitting and watching.

Read Full Interview here

World's greenest skyscraper

2010-02-24T11:05:00.001+05:30

cnn : The Holy Grail of modern architecture is to design a zero-energy building, or ZEB. ZEBs use solar, wind, and geothermal systems to produce at least as much energy as they tap from the grid.

China National Tobacco, the owner, wanted a ZEB for its energy cost savings and the green cred.

More here

Toyota's Problems and the real Cause

2010-02-24T11:02:00.001+05:30

Forbes : The entire auto industry is frightened. It isn't about Toyota, replacing some floor mats, or shaving a bit off accelerator pedals or sticking a tiny piece of metal into brake assemblies. If those are problems, they are easy to correct. What's frightening is the ghost, the ghost in the machine. Might something in the electronic computer systems make our cars suddenly speed out of control, into some unintended acceleration?

Thoughts From Kenneth Rogoff

2010-02-24T10:58:00.001+05:30

Was Milton Friedman Right About the Euro

2010-02-24T10:55:00.001+05:30

At the time of the euro’s launch in January 1999, Milton Friedman famously observed that the euro would not survive the first major European economic recession. The sovereign debt crisis presently engulfing Greece, Spain, and Portugal in the wake of the “Great Recession” would suggest that, in the end, Friedman will prove to have been right. It does not seem too early for U.S. policy makers to start pondering the serious international economic and geopolitical ramifications that would flow from any eventual breakup of the euro.

Full Article

European banks face showdown over €1 trillion of debt

2010-02-23T18:50:00.000+05:30

telegraph.co.uk : European banks need to roll over €1 trillion (£877bn) of debt over the next two years at a much higher cost and in direct competition with hungry sovereign states, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

The bank has advised clients to prepare for chillier times as monetary tightening begins in the US and China, causing major spill-over effects in Europe.

Roughly €560bn of EU bank debt matures in 2010 and €540bn in 2011. The banks will have to roll over loans at a time when unprecedented bond issuance by governments worldwide risks saturating the debt markets. European states alone must raise €1.6 trillion this year.

Full Article

Berkshire's big day: $24 billion in trading

2010-02-23T14:03:00.000+05:30

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway got a rousing introduction to the S&P 500 this month -- though it wasn't quite the most lavish ever.

Investors bought and sold more than $24 billion worth of Berkshire shares last Friday, the day the stock joined the S&P 500 index of big companies. That is the second-largest single-day volume for a U.S. stock in the past decade, according to a survey of currently listed companies by Capital IQ, a unit of S&P.

Marc Faber " Buy farmland and gold"

2010-02-23T13:43:00.001+05:30

Dr Faber, who advised his audience to pull out of American stocks one week before the 1987 crash and was among a handful who predicted the more recent financial crisis, vies with the Nouriel Roubini, the economist, as a rival claimant for the nickname Dr Doom.

“The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers: "What are you going to do when your mobile phone gets shut down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”

His investment advice, which was the first keynote speech of CLSA’s annual investment forum in Tokyo, included a suggestion that fund managers buy houses in the countryside because it was more likely that violence, biological attack and other acts of a “dirty war” would happen in cities.

More here

Fed Prez Thomas Hoenig Explains The Crisis In 60 Seconds

2010-02-23T13:40:00.000+05:30

Chanos See's Dubai 1,000 Times in China

2010-02-23T11:57:00.001+05:30

Bloomberg : Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos delivered in January that China is Dubai times a thousand. The costs of wasteful investments in empty offices and shopping malls and in underutilized infrastructure will weigh on China, Chanos, president of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., said in a speech at the London School of Economics. “We may find that that’s what pops the Chinese bubble sooner rather than later.”

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. “I think the Chinese economy will decelerate very substantially in 2010 and could even crash.”

Full article

Soros : The euro will face bigger tests than Greece

2010-02-23T11:50:00.000+05:30

Otmar Issing, one of the fathers of the euro, correctly states the principle on which the single currency was founded. As he wrote in the FT last week, the euro was meant to be a monetary union but not a political one. Participating states established a common central bank but refused to surrender the right to tax their citizens to a common authority. This principle was enshrined in the Maastricht treaty and has since been rigorously interpreted by the German constitutional court. The euro was a unique and unusual construction whose viability is now being tested.

Full article

25 Most Powerfull Men in World Finance Today

2009-12-16T13:14:00.000+05:30

Ocean of Debt

2009-12-15T10:19:00.002+05:30

Daily Link Dumps - Dec 10

2009-12-10T17:46:00.001+05:30

Pimco's Bill Gross: No Fed interest rate hike before 2011

Greece wont be allowed to default its debt : Soros

Obama lays out strategy for Job creation

The dollar has shifted from being almost the sole “reserve currency” of many countries to being the primary “investment currency” : Martin Feldstein

U.S. Extends TARP Until October 2010

Era of meanness, greed drawing to end: GE's Immelt

Paul Volcker's 'telling' words on derivatives industry: "little evidence innovation in financial markets has had a visible effect on the productivities of the economy".

Jim Rogers Bets on Dollar rebound in short term

2009-12-10T17:26:00.001+05:30

The commodities Guru and long term bear on US economy Jim Rogers is betting on a sharp rebound in Dollar in near term, but maintains his view that world economy is heading towards major trouble in coming years and US dollar wil be worthless over long term

Over the past couple of months I have been accumulating U.S. dollars ... because there are too many bears," Rogers told the Reuters Investment 2010 Outlook Summit in New York.

Daily Link Dumps - Dec 09

2009-12-09T18:23:00.000+05:30

John Paulson is buying stocks

Greece's public debt is so high that the country could default

Why China’s exchange rate policy is a concern

UK in Worse Shape than US

Japan's GDP revised to 1.3 percent, against 4.8 percent reported last month

Tighter visa rules for UK-bound Indian IT workers

Meredithy Whitney : Things are only getting worse

2009-12-09T18:09:00.001+05:30

Weekend Reading

2009-12-06T11:41:00.003+05:30

Why Capitalism Failed ?

Nouriel Roubini's new website : roubini.com

Paul Krugman : Double Dip warning

The repercussions of Dubai : The Economist

Britain faces decades of rising public sector debt

Peter Schiff : Gold headed towards $5000

2009-12-03T18:15:00.001+05:30

Marc Faber " we haven’t seen the worst of the financial crisis"

2009-12-03T11:56:00.000+05:30

Andy Xie : China bubble will eventually burst

2009-12-02T20:14:00.000+05:30

Former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist Andy Xie interviewed by FT

Daily Link Dumps - Dec 02

2009-12-02T18:34:00.002+05:30

Prince Alwaleed, banks that made loans to Dubai World should have understood the risks

Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammad Al-Maktoum hits out at global investors

Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010

GM chief executive Fritz Henderson resigns

Philladelphia Fed’s Plosser Calls for Rate Increases Sooner Rather Than Later

UK on the mend, says BoE's chief economist

India's a country whose time has come: Stephen Roach

Daily Link Dumps - Dec 01

2009-12-01T10:51:00.004+05:30

Dubai World's debt not guaranteed by government

Pressure on Renminbi

List of systemic risk Institutions by FSB

The declining dollar is an ever increasing risk

Krugman for more stimulus

Dubai: A City Built on Sand
After Dubai, Trying to Predict the Next Blowup
The Reappointment Of Bernanke Is Too Much To Bear for Nassim Taleb
Top 100 Global Thinkers - Foriegn Policy

Niall Ferguson : How Economic weakness is endangering US

2009-11-30T19:05:00.000+05:30

Well known Historian Niall ferguson explains how the fiscal troubles America faces could end its status as Super power

if the United States succumbs to a fiscal crisis, as an increasing
number of economic experts fear it may, then the entire balance of global economic power could shift. Military experts talk as if the president's decision about whether to send an additional 40,000 troops to Afghanistan is a make-or-break moment. In reality, his indecision about the deficit could matter much more for the country's long-term national security. Call the United States what you like—superpower, hegemon, or empire—but its ability to manage its finances is closely tied to its ability to remain the predominant global military power

Read the Full newsweek article here

IEA forecasts that OECD demand has peaked

2009-11-30T18:50:00.001+05:30

Global energy use is set to fall in 2009 - for the first time since 1981 on any significant scale - as a result of the financial and economic crisis, but demand is set to resume its long-term upward trend once the economic recovery gathers pace. By 2030, the Reference Scenario, which assumes no change in government policies, sees world primary energy demand a dramatic 40% higher than in 2007.

Complete World Energy Outlook 2009

Daily Link Dumps - Nov 30

2009-11-30T13:19:00.002+05:30

Is Britain on the brink of financial armageddon?

Yen’s 14 percent advance against the dollar since April 6 threatens profits of Japanese exporters, signaling a dramatic intervention

Dangers of an Overheated China

Ben bernanke Defens the role of FED

UAE offers reserves to rescue Dubai

India Q2 GDP up at 7.9% on stimulus measures

Ron Paul: Bringing Transparency to the Federal Reserve

2009-11-29T19:29:00.000+05:30

Weekend Reading

2009-11-28T13:26:00.002+05:30

Chinese Banks In The Tank,How long can China keep rolling over bad debt?

The $9 billion check that saved Morgan stanley

The carry trade risks are real

Can the Euro Zone Survive Economic Recovery?

Sri Lanka buys 10 tonnes more gold from IMF

Tim Geithner has been wrong about just about everything for 15 years : Jim Rogers

Dubai Debt Crisis - Updates

2009-11-27T19:30:00.005+05:30

Dubai Debt Woes 'A Blip', Won't Lead to Global Fallout : HSBC Strategist

Dubai news will prove to be more company specific than Lehman Bros.

After Dubai, Greece tests the limit of sovereign debt

Dubai’s attempt to reschedule Debt may spur a “correction” in emerging markets, according to Mark Mobius

Global markets hit by fresh bout of selling

Stephen Roach on Chinese Economic Outlook

2009-10-28T18:33:00.003+05:30

Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach discusses the Chinese economic outlook

Thoughts from George Soros

2009-10-27T13:41:00.000+05:30

Soros says China should be a part of the new financial order , Dollar is likely to lose status

Joseph Stiglitz "Market Is Irrationally Exuberant"

2009-10-06T14:43:00.002+05:30

Former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and Noble Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, calls the current market condition as a period of "Irrational Exuberance."

His thoughts :

Martin Feldstein : Double Dip recession a real danger

2009-09-29T11:32:00.002+05:30

Martin Feldstein , professor at Harvard University and the former head of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Ronald Reagan discusses the threat of a Double dip recession and “the real disaster” looming in commercial real estate

Worth Reading

2009-09-24T12:26:00.002+05:30

US Debt Crisis May Cause 'Fall of Rome' Scenario

US Government Spends Stimulus Money Faster Than Expected

Bank of England calls 'crisis' meeting for economists

The real effects of bank bailouts: Evidence from Japan

Marc Faber : Dollar will be worthless

2009-09-24T12:22:00.000+05:30

Worth Reading

2009-09-22T20:30:00.003+05:30

Nobel Winner Krugman Says ‘End of World Postponed

HSBC : End of Dollar Dominance

IMF to Sell over 403 Tons of Gold

Fed not acting like there’s a recovery

Healthy Banks to Lend to the F.D.I.C

G-20 Push on Banks Threatens Profits From Goldman to Barclays

Jobless figures show demise of the slump may be exaggerated

Nassim Taleb on the economy

2009-09-17T13:14:00.002+05:30

On anniversary of Lehman collapse, author of The Black Swan one of the very few who foresaw the crisis can say 'I told you so'.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of those people who can say, “I told you so.” For the past decade, he's been warning that the global economy has become far more vulnerable to unpredictable events that can cause vast disruption. He famously foresaw the credit crunch that brought the financial system to its knees.

He says the Economy still has the same disease ,His thoughts on Economy

Warren Buffet Interview

2009-09-16T13:13:00.000+05:30

Meredith Whitney: US Home Prices Could Fall By Another 25%

2009-09-15T21:11:00.003+05:30

Famed Banking Analyst Meredith Whitney says US home prices could fall another 25% before making final bottom.

Her interview to cnbc:

President Obama on Financial Reforms

2009-09-15T21:06:00.000+05:30

Worth Reading

2009-09-15T21:00:00.002+05:30

Bernanke : Recession is over

US Credit shrinking at Great Depression rate

Trade War Brewing Between US & China

US Economy Faces Big Test Next Month: Meredith Whitney

European Recovery Unlikely to Sustain

2009-09-14T17:48:00.001+05:30

The European Commission today forecast that Europe would return to positive growth by the end of the year but that the recovery might not be sustainable in 2010.

European Commission warns that for next year uncertainty is rife. "There are reasons to believe that the recovery could prove volatile and sub-par," it said, adding the full effect of the economic crisis on labour markets and public finances was still to be faced.

Full Story

Peter Schiff on Gold prices

2009-09-14T17:41:00.000+05:30

Worth Reading

2009-09-14T17:18:00.002+05:30

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz "Banking Problems Are Now Bigger Than Pre-Lehman with the too-big-to-fail banks having become even bigger"

Not just Lehman Brothers 10 more banks should have failed, for the financial system to clean itself up : Jim Rogers

The Man nobody wanted to hear, Global Banking Economist who predicted the crisis

The Hard Truth About Financial Regulation

Greenspan: Gold Rally Signals a Move Away from Paper Currencies

A vigorous Economic recovery in US, says ECRI

2009-09-12T20:00:00.003+05:30

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group expects a vigorous recovery in US economy against that of moderate recovery expected by general consensus.

Full article from reuters

The Last days Of Lehman : BBC Documentary

2009-09-12T19:55:00.003+05:30

BBC Documentary Depicting the Events during the last few days before the Collapse of Iconic Wall street Giant Lehman Brothers.

United Nations Calls for New Reserve Currency

2009-09-08T12:58:00.005+05:30

Following the BRIC nations China, India, Brazil and Russia , the UN has now raised its call for creation of a global reserve bank to issue a new reserve currency replacing the dollar.

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s role in international trade should be reduced by establishing a new currency to protect emerging markets from the “confidence game” of financial speculation, the United Nations said.

Full Article

Niall Ferguson on "Chimerica"

2009-09-07T21:06:00.006+05:30

Chimerica is a term first Coined by Historian & Harvard University Professor Niall Ferguson. Chimerica refers to the symbiotic realtionship shared by China & America in which china saves and America spend excessively.In the following conversation Ferguson shares his thoughts on the Chimerica relationship and how it caused the Financial crisis of 2008.

Roubini positive on Emerging Markets

2009-09-07T20:33:00.003+05:30

Economist Nouriel Roubini dubbed as Dr.Doom for his accurate predictions of the Economic Downturn has raised a bullish tone on Emerging Economies like China, India, Brazil

His recent Interview to Cnbc:

Obama repeating the mistakes of "Great Depression"

2009-09-07T20:17:00.003+05:30

According to a new study endorsed by Nobel laureate James Buchanan, the Obama administration and US Policy makers are repeating the mistakes made by President Roosevelt During the 1930's that pushed US into a serious depression that lasted over a span of 10 years.

The reports say employing deficit spending and increased state intervention President Obama will ultimately hamper the long-term growth potential of the US economy and may risk delaying full economic recovery by several years.

Read the Full Story here

Nifty, Sensex Scale new 52 week Highs

2009-09-07T20:03:00.003+05:30

On the back of positive Global cues and reduced fears over the effects of Drought, Indian Market continued its 6 month rally to scale new 52 week highs in the bourses.

The broader Indices have clocked in more than 100% gains since the Bottom made in early March 2009, Mid caps have joined the party and are surging to new highs. The mood in the markets is positive with expectations of markets to reach 5000 levels in coming sessions.

However RBI has raised concerns over inflation , according to RBI governor Inflation is becoming a concern sooner than expected. Food inflation is becoming a serious worry with the country facing a drought situation. Nomura Securities expects Inflation to hit 6.5% by march 2010.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukerji on his return from the G20 Meeting in London has said Indian growth is likely to decelerate on the back of continued fall in exports.

China alarmed by US money printing

2009-09-07T19:48:00.002+05:30

China is beginning to show distress over US credit easing , According to Cheng Siwei a top member of the communist regime in china . He sees a risk of serious decline in Dollar over next few years that may offset a change in China's Foreign reserve policy

"(telegraph.co.uk) -- We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again," Siwei said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

"If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies," he said.

Full Article

IMF predicts Slow Growth Recovery

2009-09-04T20:16:00.003+05:30

International Monetary Fund has revised upwards it growth Forecast for 2010 to 2.9% against earlier forecast of 2.5% according to reports.

Earlier World Bank President Pointed out that India , China along with other Developing Economies will play crucial role in the Economic recovery

Worst of slump ahead of us, says this Economist

2009-09-04T19:44:00.002+05:30

Ann Pettifor is a member of a select club — the seers who saw it all coming. Now the economist, who predicted the credit crunch as far back as 2003, believes that the worst is yet to come unless there is radical reform of the financial system.

Six years ago she parodied the International Monetary Fund’s annual economic forecast with her own — The Real World Economic Outlook. Then, in 2006, her book The Coming First World Debt Crisis, warned that rich countries were heading for a debt crisis that would overshadow anything seen in the developing world. Both were ridiculed.

Full Article

US Unemployment rate at 26 year high of 9.7%

2009-09-04T18:48:00.000+05:30

(Bloomberg) -- The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in August as signs emerged that the recession is ending, while the unemployment rate reached a 26-year high, underscoring threats to consumer spending gains in the recovery.

Employers cut 216,000 from payrolls, fewer than forecast, after a 276,000 drop in July that was larger than previously reported, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent.

Full story

Thoughts from Marc Faber

2009-09-03T19:06:00.001+05:30

Interview with FDIC head Sheila Bair

2009-09-03T11:23:00.000+05:30

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair talks about the risks looming in Commercial Mortgages

US Commercial Mortgage : The Next Crisis ?

2009-09-02T19:13:00.005+05:30

A commercial mortgage is similar to a residential mortgage, except the collateral is a commercial building or other business real estate. A wave of commercial mortgage delinquencies looms as a potential threat to recovery

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair in an interview said that commercial mortgages may run more banks out of business this year and next. Bair also said commercial real-estate loans were "catching up" with residential mortgages as a threat to banks' balance sheets. "Commercial real estate is a looming problem.

It's going to be a bigger driver of bank failures toward the end of this year and into next year," she said. So far this year, 84 U.S. banks have failed

Thoughts From Roubini

2009-09-02T12:24:00.002+05:30

Economic Data Watch - 1.9.09

2009-09-01T20:43:00.003+05:30

UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slips to 49.7 in August, Sparking Fears on the sustainability of the recent economic recovery,

The jobless rate in the 16 nations that use the euro climbed to a new 10-year high of 9.5 percent in July despite other signs that the economy is starting to recover, Full Story

US ISM index of national factory activity rose to 52.9 in August from 48.9 in July, A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.Full Story

Thoughts From Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley Asia

2009-09-01T20:35:00.003+05:30

Macro Hedge Funds betting against US recovery

2009-09-01T18:14:00.002+05:30

Paul Tudor Jones a Famed trader, billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery in US.

Bloomberg : Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

Full Article

Stiglitz : Days numbered for Dollars Dominance

2009-09-01T12:26:00.002+05:30

Nobel Price winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz on the Enormous Fiscal Deficit staring at US and the Role of Dollar in coming years

From washingtonpost : Beware of deficit fetishism.
Last week we learned that the national debt is likely to grow by more than $9 trillion. That's not great news -- no one likes a big deficit -- but President Obama inherited an economic mess from the Bush administration, and the cleanup comes with an inevitably high price tag. We're paying it now.

There are no easy options. When financial crises strike, economic growth declines and living standards drop, resulting in lower tax revenues and greater need for government assistance -- all of which leads to higher fiscal imbalances.
What really matters is not the size of the deficit but how we're spending our money. If we expand our debt in order to make high-return, productive investments, the economy can become stronger than if we slash expenditures.

Full Article

Elliot Wave Expert Warns Again that Rally is over

2009-09-01T12:13:00.002+05:30

Robert Pretcher of Elliot wave International warns again that US stock market rally is done and turnaround is likely around the corner. He shares his highly bearish view on US stocks

Click here for the Audio Interview link.

China A Huge Bubble

2009-09-01T12:06:00.003+05:30

Chinese Markets Tanked more than 6% in yesterdays Trade sending Jitters across Global Markets.Former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch Richard Bernstein says China’s economy is overheating and that investors should avoid its stock market.

“China is an immense credit bubble that's going on right now,” he tells CNBC.

“I would actually rather invest into the U.S. right now than invest in China." Chinese bank loans jumped 30 percent in the first half of the year.

"They have massive overcapacity and their solution to that problem was to build more capacity over that," says Bernstein, now CEO of Bernstein Capital Management.

He says that those who believe China’s economy will lead a global economic recovery are mistaken.
Full Article

Jeremy Grantham , US Stocks overvalued by 15%

2009-08-25T13:20:00.003+05:30

wsj.com: It feels good to be right. But the few analysts who accurately called the market’s bottom in early March aren’t feeling so great about where stocks are headed.

One of the most famous of this group, Jeremy Grantham, penned a note on March 10 entitled “Reinvesting When Terrified” that encouraged investors to buy, suggesting stocks were 30% undervalued.

Since then, the market has roared ahead, without stopping for a correction of 10% or more. Standard & Poor’s 500-share index ended last week at 1026.13, up nearly 52% from its 12½-year low on March 9 and its highest close since Oct. 6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 9505.96, up 45% since its March low.

Now, the chairman of Boston asset-management firm GMO and his colleagues say the S&P 500 has zoomed right past what they consider fair value of about 880, based on earnings estimates and historical price-to-earnings ratios.

Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.

Bernanke to be nominated as Fed chief for 2nd term

2009-08-25T09:39:00.004+05:30

reuters.com

U.S. President Barack Obama will nominate Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday as the economy shows signs of recovery, a senior administration official said on Monday. Bernanke, whose appointment as head of the U.S. central bank must be confirmed by the Senate, has led the Fed and the U.S. economy through its most tumultuous period since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Obama's Democrats control the Senate.

Full Article

Marc Faber: Chinese Economy may Implode in 2010

2009-08-24T14:28:00.001+05:30

Roubini warns of a Double dip recession

2009-08-24T11:46:00.001+05:30

ft.com

T he global economy is starting to bottom out from the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 the rate at which most advanced economies were contracting was similar to the gross domestic product free-fall in the early stage of the Depression. Then, late last year, policymakers who had been behind the curve finally started to use most of the weapons in their arsenal. When will the global recession be over? What will be the shape of the economic recovery? Are there risks of a relapse?

Full article

News Today - Aug 19

2009-08-19T09:26:00.001+05:30

* Asian stock markets trade mixed, with Japanese and Hong Kong shares lower, weighed partly by banks and airline stocks.

* Hewlett-Packard's quarterly earnings fall as sales of PCs, printers and software all decline in the recession, though the results manage to beat Wall Street's low outlook.

* Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell more than forecast in July as energy costs receded, capping the biggest 12-month drop on record and showing inflation will not be an immediate concern for Federal Reserve policy makers.

* The U.K. inflation rate unexpectedly held at 1.8 percent in July as the cost of computer games, DVDs and alcohol rose, a sign the economy is staving off deflation as the recession eases.

* US Stock Rally Has Hit a Wall: Bond market Giant Pimco's El-Erian

Robert Prechter On The Dollar

2009-08-18T18:56:00.002+05:30

The founder of Elliott Wave International shares his views on Dollar

News Today - Aug 18

2009-08-18T09:28:00.002+05:30

* U.S. stocks and commodities sell off, rekindling familiar fears that market is leading indicator.

* Crude futures follow stocks lower as tumbling stocks pressure futures to a more than 2% fall, Gold slides about 1.5%

* Japan’s 3.7 percent economic expansion last quarter ended the country’s worst postwar recession.

*German investor confidence probably rose to the highest level in more than three years in August after Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly emerged from recession in the second quarter, a survey of economists shows.

* This Economic Recovery Is On Such Shaky Ground

News Links - Aug 17

2009-08-17T18:55:00.003+05:30

Sensex takes 626-pt blow on China meltdown

Shanghai index tanks 5.8% in Monday trading.

Bears prowl Wall St as insiders dump stock

10 Reasons To Be a Bear Right Now

Gerald Celente: The 2nd American Revolution

'Bill,' First Hurricane of 2009 Season, Seen Strengthening :U.S. National Hurricane Center

New York Area Manufacturing Grows First Time Since 2008 as Recession Wanes

Fed Extends TALF Program Through June 2010 to Support Commercial Property

News Links - Aug 14

2009-08-14T18:18:00.003+05:30

S&P's increases growth forecast to 6.3%

New record set in U.S. foreclosures

Blackstone's Schwarzman is the Best-Paid U.S. Executive, Tops with $702 Million

Tim Geithner: No evidence of Street reverting to old ways

India Inc upbeat on hiring, hikes

Agri situation disturbing: RBI Governor Subbarao

Citigroup is still sitting on top of a mountain of toxic assets

‘The World Is in Trouble’: Deutsche Bank Chief Economist

Krugman's suggestion on how to track this global financial crisis

2009-08-14T18:16:00.001+05:30

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman offers ways the public can look for signs of recovery

News Today - Aug 14

2009-08-14T09:36:00.003+05:30

* A good lead from the U.S. and rising commodities prices help extend Asian stock gains, while official comments boost Australian shares.

* Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July, raising the risk that consumers will keep cutting back as job losses mount and temper a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

* Hong Kong probably emerged from its worst recession since at least 1990 in the second quarter as a recovery in mainland China bolstered exports

* Billionaire Li Ka-shing, who predicted China’s stock-market bubble would burst in 2007, said the global economy won’t recover this year and told investors to be “cautious” about buying shares, especially with borrowed money.

* Dollar Will Rise and Punish Stocks: Marc Faber

* Six of world's top 10 economies out of crisis

* Drought almost certain now, admits Indian Met dept